Debt, deficits and fiscal arithmetic

Fiscal austerity – defined as the reduction in the structural (primary) budget deficit – might be politically popular, but is it necessary from an economic perspective?

I ask this because the current Conservative government expects to eliminate the budget deficit by the middle of the next decade. So, the deficit reduction programme, which has been in place since 2010, will continue into the 2020’s. But should it? Are balanced budgets necessary to achieve sustainability in the public finances?

Read More »

Minimum wages and profitability

The debate over the impact of the minimum wage has been one of the most intense and most controversial in the field of economics. This is in large part because the literature on the subject is contested.

On the one hand, critics argue that a price floor in the labour market would result in greater unemployment, since an increase in the wage rate will increase the cost of hiring an additional worker, so firms would employ less (Leamer et al, 2017). Conversely, proponents of the minimum wage assert that the resulting unemployment is inconsequential in comparison to the benefits gained (Cengiz et al, 2017; Allegretto et al, 2018; Rinz and Voorheis, 2018). The supposed benefits include: poverty reduction, improving worker morale (and, thus, raising labour productivity) and offsetting the negative impact of employers with market (monopsony) power.

Read More »

The biggest lie in politics

The political realm is luxuriant with lies. And the biggest lie which, over the last decade, has dominated public discourse more than any other is the lie that the last Labour government mismanaged the economy and caused a recession.

Contrary to what many politicians may tell you, Labour’s fiscal policy decisions did not cause the economic crisis. There was no reckless spending or profligacy. It’s worrying to see how this lie has become accepted as conventional wisdom, for two reasons. First, it gives a false explanation as to how the crisis came to be. And, second, as a result of this false explanation, it has enabled the Tories’ to justify their unnecessary austerity programme, which has resulted in real-word damaging consequences. That is why it is important to expose this myth.

Read More »

Three myths about Government debt

Few aspects of our economy are as gravely misunderstood among politicians, media pundits and the general public as our public finances. Indeed, public discourse on the national debt is luxuriant with myths and fallacies. This piece offers a rebuttal to three widely held beliefs regarding public debt which, I hope, will lead to greater honesty in discussions, and debates, on the public debt and budget deficit.

Read More »